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Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 1502
Registered: 05-2011
Posted From: 107.77.75.35
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, September 29, 2014 - 7:25 pm: |
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Farex mama when u buy can u alert here ? Also Sachinfan plz
Life is a choice. It is YOUR life. Choose consciously, choose wisely, choose honestly. Choose happiness
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Kubang
Yavvanam Kaatesina Bewarse
Username: Kubang
Post Number: 9513
Registered: 09-2011
Posted From: 161.141.1.1
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, September 29, 2014 - 7:24 pm: |
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UUP call options for Jan 2016 konna oka two months ago with the view that USD will strengthen with all the problems around. It's up 92% since then..
Ignorance is bliss
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Farex
Mudiripoyina Bewarse
Username: Farex
Post Number: 17067
Registered: 10-2010
Posted From: 76.220.127.55
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, September 29, 2014 - 7:08 pm: |
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http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/wealth/savings-centre/savings-news/silvers-s harp-fall-rising-industrial-demand-makes-it-better-investment-bet-than-gold/arti cleshow/43760671.cms
Jagamanthati Kutumbham Nadhi
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Farex
Mudiripoyina Bewarse
Username: Farex
Post Number: 17066
Registered: 10-2010
Posted From: 76.220.127.55
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, September 29, 2014 - 7:06 pm: |
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Why gold is likely to fall further, despite the upcoming festive season
"The dollar may strengthen further due to the expected US Fed action, but its impact on the Indian rupee will be limited because the RBI is well prepared this time," says Namdev Chougule, executive director and head of fixed income, JP Morgan AMC.
Significant dollar inflows into the India equity and debt markets, may also increase once the FDI pipeline gets cleared by the Centre. With the domestic economy picking up, the probability of a rating upgrade is also helping the Indian rupee. And that explains why the rupee remained relatively stable despite the dollar's appreciation against other world currencies over the last two months.
The other factor that has influenced gold prices is the government's decision to raise import duty from 2% to 10% and the RBI move to curb gold imports by imposing the 20:80 gold import scheme, where importers had to export at least 20% of the gold imported.
If both the government and the RBI decides to withdraw these measures, gold prices will plunge further. However, such actions may still be a few months away. "Import duty cut on gold is not expected before the next budget (February 2015) and the import restrictions imposed by RBI may also remain till that time," says Kishore Narne, associate director, Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker.
What you must do**********
With most economic indicators not favouring the yellow metal, it seems to be on a downhill journey. "International gold prices is heading lower and may go down to $1,000 in the next 6-9 months," says Praveen Singh, senior commodities analyst, Sharekhan. Agrees Narne: "Rising interest rates is bad news for gold. With other asset classes doing well, investors are moving out of gold."
And, this explains the constant redemption pressure on SPDR Gold Shares, the largest gold ETF in the world. The value of holding has fallen by 43% from its all-time high and is now at the lowest levels since 2008. The central bankers' sudden rush to buy gold also seems to be ending.
"No major central banks are buying gold now," says C P Krishnan, whole time director, Geojit Comtrade. A similar trend has been witnessed in India as well.
"Investors are expecting further price fall and, therefore, investment demand is lower. The rally in the stock market is another reason why investors are moving away from gold," says Hasmukh Bafna, president, Gold Chains & Jewellery Wholesalers Welfare Association
But, should you sell your gold now? No, says experts. "Gold prices usually go up during Diwali, so don't sell it right now," says Sudip Bandyopadhyay, president, Destimoney Securities.
Singh echoes similar views: "The global bullion market is in an oversold situation right now and, therefore, we may see some upward correction in the short-term, before the next leg of fall.
So, $1,270 is a good level to sell." Bafna agrees: "Downward movement in gold may start from November and may go down to around `25,500 in the coming months."
What now for consumers******
Indian gold consumption can be classified into two broad categories: festive season buying and for life events, such as marriage, birthdays, etc. Experts say you must avoid buying gold this festive season because prices are expected to come down.
Gold as part of asset allocation*******
Investors holding or planning to buy gold as part of an asset allocation strategy can continue to do so. Since gold has negative co-relation with other asset classes, it reduces volatility of the overall portfolio. It also comes handy in case of extreme uncertainties.
Though everything looks rosy now on the domestic front, things can go haywire any time and, if all other asset classes, including equity, debt and real estate, crash, gold will be back in favour.
There's one more reason to have gold in your portfolio. Most Indian investors do not diversify into global markets and gold, as an international commodity, gives them the opportunity to do so.
However, you must ensure that gold does not exceed 5-10% of your portfolio. This strategy is like buying a term insurance policy that provides for your family in your absense, but does not give returns in your life time. Similarly, even if the economy remains stable and there's no crisis in the immediate future, you can fall back on the yellow metal if something goes awry.
*******Silver is better than gold now*********
Though gold and silver have always been an essential ingredient in the Indian investors scheme of things, the dynamics in silver is a bit different compared to gold. "Unlike gold, which is used as jewellery or held as investment, silver also has industrial use," says Krishnan.
Traces of silver can be found in virtually every modern-day electronic device, including smart phones and tablets. Furthermore, it is a crucial element in manufacturing photovoltaic cells that are used in solar panels.
"With around 60% of the global demand for silver coming from industrial use, the expected global economic pickup is good news for the metal," says Bandyopadhyay. And this increased industrial demand alone may save silver from the expected fall in gold prices in the coming months.
More importantly, the production and consumption pattern of gold and silver is also in favour of silver for the long term. As the entire gold production is hoarded, it makes its way back to the market.
However, 60% of silver that goes into industrial consumption is rarely recycled because it is not economically viable. The relatively bigger fall in silver prices in the recent past is another reason that makes experts relatively bullish on silver compared to gold.
While international gold fell 35% from its alltime highs, silver fell by over 60%. The gold to silver ratio too has jumped from 32 in April 2011 to 70 now. This means the risk-reward ratio is more in favour of silver.
Jagamanthati Kutumbham Nadhi
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Farex
Mudiripoyina Bewarse
Username: Farex
Post Number: 17065
Registered: 10-2010
Posted From: 76.220.127.55
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, September 29, 2014 - 6:59 pm: |
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http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/why-gold-is-likely-to-fa ll-further-despite-the-upcoming-festive-season/articleshow/43610747.cms?curpg=3
Jagamanthati Kutumbham Nadhi
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Archives - 2014