| Author | Message | ||
     Nbkfan123 Pilla Bewarse Username: Nbkfan123 Post Number: 173 Registered: 11-2010 Rating: N/A |
Silver is going up back into 30's. $4 rise so far. dont buy now as silver is going up it may go to $37. keep your cash ready for next drop in silver. Some Silver Analysis ====================== -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I've been looking at the silver price charts and wanted to see if I could dig a little deeper to predict the medium-term as well as long-term price of silver. As you can see in the chart above, if you take the start of the silver bull market as Jan 2003, when silver finally departed the 4$ trading-range it had been in for decades, then you can see that the price of silver follows what I will call Bull Bursts, with silver highs hitting a 29% annual appreciation curve and then falling back in price significantly (at least 34%) before running to new highs within 2 to 3 years. Note that the lows for each Bull Burst have always occurred shortly after hitting the highs (within 9 months), followed by a walk back up to the 29% annual appreciation line. This is a very scary time for silver investors, as the decline is massive in a short amount of time (at least 34%). Given that this trend has repeated four times already in the past 10 years, it appears that the low for this Bull Burst may already be in ($25.84 back in September 2011) and we should be in a trading range around 30-40$ until at least late fall 2012, or more likely the middle of 2013. Then you will see an explosive run up to around $75-80/oz in 2013, with a dramatic decline to about 50$ shortly thereafter. The next big run up after that will be in 2015 to about $130/oz, falling back to about 80-90$/oz shortly thereafter. The next (final?) big run up will be in 2017 or 2018, when silver breaks $200/oz. I believe this psychological barrier will cause the masses to pile in to silver and we will hit $300/oz or higher shortly thereafter. Gold should be around $8000/oz by then, so the GSR will be about 25:1. This is the point at which I plan to sell at least 75% of my precious metals and move the proceeds into whatever cash-flowing asset class is most undervalued (most likely rental real estate and dividend stocks), and semi-retire. As I've written here, the price of silver has averaged approximately 29% annual returns since 2001, but the price rise has never been slow and gradual. Instead, there have always been periods which I call 'Bull Bursts', where the price of silver is flat, then starts to rise a little, which generates interest, which causes the price to rise more, until finally silver goes sky-high in an almost parabolic increase to between 200-500% of the initial price at the beginning of the Bull Burst. Finally, the price collapses between 30-50%, there is about 6-9 months of consolidation, and a new Bull Burst begins, starting at a higher low, and ending at an even higher high than the previous Burst. |