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Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur

Post Number: 3302
Registered: 05-2011
Posted From: 65.35.45.47

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0

Posted on Tuesday, March 02, 2021 - 8:38 pm:   

C3 (AI) -12% reported underwhelming results given the 50x sales multiple. C3 reported revenue modestly above estimates, growing 19%, but missed billings estimates as the company goes after shorter term contracts. Its hard to justify 50x sales when billings miss and revenue growth is less than 20%. The company guided Q4 revenue modestly above estimates with a slightly larger than expected net loss. The company is diversifying its business away from the energy sector (38% mix down from 59% last year) and remains poised to accelerate growth but the multiple was too rich. Recall, I loved this stock heading into the IPO, but I sold for a quick gain in December as the multiple became excessive relative to the financial performance. Throwing valuation aside, this looks like a good potential entry while the stock retests the low end of its range near $100/share. This stock may not get much cheaper, but I would like to at least wait for a flush under $100 before getting back in.
Zoom (ZM) +7% reported another massive beat and raise report, as expected. Cash flow increased 10x yr/yr to $399M. While this may be the last real blowout before comps become difficult, a return to "normal" in 2021 won't include everyone returning to the office everyday or going on as many busines trips. As a result, the Zoom phenomenon of 2020 isn't going anywhere. The stock is not cheap but I would view a pullback in to the $415-425 area as a buying opportunity this morning.
3D systems (DDD) -7% appear to be vulnerable after the company reported Q4 results in-line with its upside preannouncement last night. The company identified material weakness in its financial reporting and delayed its 10-K filling. Mgmt also didn't provide any guidance other than a gross margin forecast, which was toward the low end of expectations. Commentary or guidance on the top line will be critical to the stock this morning; unclear whether they will provide any more guidance on the call underway... The stock needs to hold the ~$35 support level and appears vulnerable without some incrementally positive news after its recent rally.
Roku (ROKU) +1% is acquiring Nielsen's Advanced Video Advertising (AVA) business, which includes Nielsen's video automatic content recognition (ACR) and dynamic ad insertion (DAI) technologies. "The acquisition will accelerate Roku's launch of an end-to-end DAI solution with TV programmers. In addition, Nielsen and Roku will enter into a strategic partnership to integrate complementary Nielsen ad and content measurement products into the Roku platform and further advance Nielsen ONE, the company's cross-media measurement solution." The deal may not provide much of a lift near term, but it seems to expand Roku's TAM by allowing it to eventually sell targeted advertising on linear TV, not just in streaming. This seems like a fairly significant deal for Roku, which is further leveraging its already strong position as the leading smart TV operating system to become an even stronger player in the high margin advertising business (where it makes all its money). A focus on the $1B equity offering (dilution!) misses the point, in my view. Much like TWLO, ROKU is focused on scaling its business as large as possible over the long term (not near term profitability). While the +$50B valuation at 20x sales is increasingly rich, ROKU and TTD are the best ways to play streaming along with NFLX or now DIS.

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