| Author | Message | ||
     Nbkfan Kurra Bewarse Username: Nbkfan Post Number: 1254 Registered: 03-2006 Posted From: 223.237.13.57 Rating: N/A |
YSRCP to come to power...Assembly vote share 44%: TDP BJP 42% vote share... Seemandhra Seemandhra was a nightmare election to project on the 7th of May as it was a really neck-to-neck fight in a state that saw a huge turnout. One needs to be extremely cautious in reading the numbers from Seemandhra purely because of the turnout factor which may be indicating a sweep for one or the other party or combination while the actual data suggests a vertical split. In such a situation we are bravely projecting the Vote-Share numbers despite the caveat of the turnout as a factor. Some of the factors that played out in Seemandhra on 7th May that actually made this a cracker of a contest are themselves unique to 2014; Division of the state was a major issue which overshadowed all other factors, so Modi as a factor was almost non-evident in the overall picture of this truncated state. In fact, Seemandhra was the one state apart from probably Kerala where Modi didn’t make much of a difference The TDP-BJP alliance made a difference of possibly 4-5% swing in favour of the alliance although one cannot surely fathom whether it will help Naidu form a government here Polarization in the last few days among Muslim voters towards Jagan Reddy’s party did help YSRCP to some extent to overcome the momentum of TDP-BJP alliance Jagan managed to keep his vote-base of Reddys, lower classes and Muslims with no cross voting whatsoever in both LS as well as assembly polls unlike what we witnessed in Telangana. TDP-BJP did get an additional percent or two in the LS polls but it was more of “others” vote There was no cross-voting from Christians (believed to be close to 20%) who stuck to YSRCP Kapu consolidation was solidly behind TDP-BJP (roughly 59%) which helped the alliance to a large extent Although YSRCP scored a better vote-share in assembly polls in overall terms, this was skewed by the party’s much better performance in Rayalaseema whereas TDP-BJP has probably done better in the other regions Seat conversion from this kind of vote-share projection is another nightmare so we are not projecting for the assembly polls and are sticking to LS polls only. This looks like a very close race for Seemandhra assembly like the Chhattisgarh election of last December wherein we decided to only do a vote-share projection and not hazard a guess as to seat-share. TIGER - SIMHA |