| Author | Message | ||
     Farex Mudiripoyina Bewarse Username: Farex Post Number: 16359 Registered: 10-2010 Posted From: 76.220.127.55 Rating: N/A |
EB dates yokka analysis ki manchi site,,,every month page update chesthadu,,,,,first page analysis (first post) then lat page lo emanan disco nadusthundhemo soodatam best thakkuva time unnollaki. mahaa gurus untaru and best opinion dorukuthundhi  -------------------------------------------------- http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-%28Rather-Ca lculations%29-2013 -------------------------------------------------- Latest Updates . Mar 31, 2014 (Trackitt Update) - Observed approx. 50% YoY more demand for EB1C-I, 75% YoY less demand for EB2 ROW and 25% more YoY demand for EB3ROW. Respectively they will result in less SOFAD for EB2I, much more SOFAD for EB2I and almost no SOFAD for EB3I. · Mar 3, 2013 (Labor data update) – Latest PERM data confirms 33% drop in PERM approvals compared to last year. · Mar 3, 2014 (485 Inventory Update) – 485 inventory data for Q1 2014 is not quite conclusive. We don’t see anything that will affect our current model either –vely or +vely. 2014 Summary Trend Prediction EB2I dates will see net forward movement in 2014 but will experience initial retrogression similar to last year. The dates should move in Q3 of USCIS year i.e. between Jul-Sep 2014. Overall EB quota is less than prior year (150K vs 158K). And secondly, significant backlog exists prior to Jun 2008 which is where dates ended in Sep 2013. However an overall slowdown in PERM approvals as well as overall slowdown in 140 as well as 485 approvals could be helpful in reducing backlog. General Prediction Tailwinds (+ve things) · Overall economy and resulting job environment continues to dampen overall demand across the board. (This is now confirmed by labor reports that show almost 36% drop in PERM certifications across the board.) · 10K extra visas compared to annual quota (150K vs 140K) · Almost zero backlog in EB4 and Moderate in EB5 Immigration is like a balloon, you press it in one place and it pops out from other side. We are seeing similar thing in immigration where since 2007, there has been a trend in EB3 candidates porting to EB2. Since 2007, the rules of spillover were changed to horizontal spillover, EB2 stopped providing any spillover to EB3. Thus EB3 backlog became quite acute. Now portings are happening from EB3->EB2 in such a way that for retrogressed countries like India, the dates will remain retrogressed for much of the year except at the end of the year when the dates will move based on how many visas are left from other categories. Luckily there are still other categories that are providing extra visas. Those categories are EB4, 5, EB1, and sometimes EB2ROW. So people shouldn't be worried about temporary retrogression. Generally every year these categories ensure that EB2IC dates move forward. This year i.e. 2014, there will be 10K extra visas from FB that will be used in EB category. Last year that number was 18K. So in 2014, the movement of EB2I should be somewhat less than last year - if everything else being equal. However the fact that PERM, 140 and 485 processing are all slowed down. PERMs are down 33% compared to last year and 67% down compared to the one before that. This will certainly act favorably for backlogged countries. The severe retrogression in EB3 will continue albeit the category will keep moving forward because EB3ROW hasn’t been able to generate enough demand. So although the model shows modest movement for EB3I we do think the real movement for EB3I will be 6-8 months. At the current trend, EB3ROW might get current in a year or two. The effect of CP/NVC data: The latest NVC data shows 9K EB2I CP applications in the pipeline. This data is in addition to the 485 applications as well as any possible upgrades from EB3I->EB2I. We estimate that around half of those CP cases will be pre 2009 increasing real pre 2009 backlog to about 16-17K. If one adds approximate 5K EB3->EB2 porting then the pre 2009 backlog comes to around 21-22K. That is quite a large number to overcome for dates to move into 2009. But with the tailwinds mentioned above the dates could very well move into Q1 2009. 2013 Visa Consumption Update In January 2014 we saw 2013 Visa Statistics come out. A few more interesting observations from the 2013 visa allocations: (In the order of importance and implications) 1. Overall consumption was 3K more than initial visa allocation of 158K 2. EB2 consumption was 63K i.e. approx 18K more than quota. Thus 18K came from other categories. 3. EB2ROW consumption was 36K. That is huge. Plus EB2P received 4.4K and EB2-SKorea received 7K. This doesn't bode well for 2014 4. EB3 overall consumption was 41K which was 3K less than its quota. However EB3I received 7K and inventory reduced by 12K. Thus 5K of EB3->2 porting for India was confirmed. 5. EB1 India ate up almost 10K while EB1 china consumed 6K. thus showing healthy demand for EB1 in 2014. 6. EB5 china consumed 6K thus showing healthy future demand for EB5 Overall it is safe to say without the 18K extra visas EB2I would have been crushed under all this demand and there would be very little movement. Fundamentally there are several -ve trends going on here. 1. EB1 and 5 have healthy demand. 2. EB2ROW has very strong demand - probably it includes EB3 porting. 3. EB2I has almost 5K of EB3I porting. EB3ROW as well as EB3I has solid good trends going on. Basically EB3ROW should become current in couple of years from now - perhaps as soon as next. Jagamanthati Kutumbham Nadhi |